At a time when globla pandemics are taking place, I would like to take the time to provide some input o how governents and non-government organizations (NGOs) are dealing with AIDS, the avian flue, and other current ecoli epidemic taking place in Europe.
AIDS Forecasted Statistics Based on the 2004 WHO Global Report
At a moment where a well-defined, well-planned healthcare reform has become a topic of further debate in Congress, the USA is also ready to cut or reduce its support to Africa nations in their fight against AIDS and the HIV virus. In December 2004, the World Health Organization (WHO) released a worldwide report including historic categorized figures as well as importance aspects of disease control, prevalence, and factorial causes, including statistics by gender, and type of intercourse including men who have sex with woman, men who have sex with men, and women who have sex with women. Interestingly, the report revealed neglects in disease control due to lack of education mostly in countries of the third world, in particular, Sub-Saharan Africa, but also in a great portion of India. There were little reference between the overall ethics of a country or religiosity, but promiscuity also accounted as an important factor in the spread of this deadly disease. Surprisingly, another important factor related to the negligence in certain types of sex, such as oral sex, which is cited to be the most neglected and therefore, the most dangerous type, especially, among women who have sex with women. While oral sex can be cause of a simple yeast infection in the mouth, it can also expand to the human papaloma, all of which facilitates the spread of the HIV virus, and because of this, it is cited high in the prevalence of women who have sex with women. Being probably more dangerous than the chances of cervical cancer in a conventional inter-gender intercourse. Dr. Oz, the adroit medical advisor at Fox TV, has recently recommended for Americans to consider abstaining from having oral sex, as a new standard practice, as it is a factor in the development of oral cancer, as well, in conjunction with alcohol and cigarette usage.
Sub-Saharan Africa may face more difficult times, especially, in regions of high HIV prevalence. But without creating awareness regions where traditionally same-gender intercourse was not historic, the lack of education may further allow the spread of HIV/AIDS. Latin American is actually aware of the HIV/AIDS danger, but the lack of education and the practice of promiscuous activities among young people can lead to further disease spread.
The study does not explicitly discusses factors such as drug and alcohol among college students and other young people. However, it implicitly treats them as a form of negligence or promiscuity.
The following is an excerpt of one of my MBA's team project on the 2004 WHO report.
INTRODUCTION
When AIDS first emerged, nobody could have predicted how the epidemic would spread across the world and how many millions of lives it would change. There was no real idea what caused it, and consequently, no real idea how to protect against it. This paper will depict the prevalence of AIDS amongst different countries, what has been done to prevent the spread of the epidemic, the mortality rates in those countries and the global impact of this epidemic.
This paper will show the comparison between the figures of prevalence, expenditures and mortality rates in fifteen different countries and how this has affected the overall global structure against the population prevalent in these countries.
A key objective presented here is a Times Series basic model containing forecasts for the next few years, and an enhanced model considering other factors like interaction between grown, prevalence, and mortality, and the effect of AIDS education and existing and development drug treatment. The Time Series model utilized is an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA)-like model which smoothes the population growth for each particular variable involved, such as the infected population, the disease periodic prevalence, the yearly death toll, and positive effects derived from AIDS education and treatment. It considers mortality the summary of a Bayesian model, where mortality is presented in terms of uncertain probabilities in addition to a hash algorithm. Additionally, the enhanced model is presented based on Oracle tables and data mining with relevant tools1.
PREVALENCE OF AIDS/HIV
What are HIV and AIDS?
A virus has been sweeping the world for the past two decades, causing a disease which has killed millions of people and which looks likely to kill millions more. The virus is called HIV which stands for Human Immunodeficiency Virus. After a period of time this virus begins to damage the immune system, and this is known as the disease AIDS. This time period varies, depending on factors such as access to drugs, and possibly such factors as nutrition, the presence of other medical conditions, and stress.
Understanding the epidemic
The term epidemic is used to refer to the rapid spread of HIV & AIDS across populations around the world. In order to understand the epidemic of HIV which is spreading across the globe, and the epidemic of AIDS which follows in it’s footsteps, it is necessary to look at certain figures. The figures we need include the number of HIV+ people in a country, the number of people with AIDS in a country, and the number of people who have died from AIDS-related conditions.
The epidemic of HIV and AIDS is a complicated and hugely important world issue. There has been a great deal of study into the medical and social aspects of the epidemic, which has generated a great deal of data. This information is often presented as long numbers, graphs and tables, and sometimes the terminology used can be quite technical. In order to turn the information into an understanding of the epidemic, you need to know what the data mean.
With reported figures, each number indicates an actual positive result for a person’s HIV test. This method of looking at the epidemic can give an extremely clear picture in terms of real people who have been affected by the virus – especially when looking at smaller areas. The problem with reported data is that it is sometimes hard to detect trends over time, especially when looking at recent years. Reports of positive HIV tests can sometimes take months, or a few years, to reach a central agency which compiles the total figure.
Significance of the Facts and Figures of prevalence of HIV/AIDS
As of the end of 2003, an estimated 37.8 million people worldwide - 35.7 million adults and 2.1 million children younger than 15 years - were living with HIV/AIDS. Approximately two-thirds of these people (25.0 million) live in Sub-Saharan Africa; another 20 percent (7.4 million) live in Asia and the Pacific.(1)
Worldwide, approximately 11 of every 1000 adults aged 15 to 49 are HIV-infected. In Sub-Saharan Africa, about 7.5 percent of all adults in this age group are HIV-infected. Woman account for nearly half of all people worldwide living with HIV/AIDS. (1)
An estimated 4.8 million new HIV infections occurred worldwide during 2003; that is, about 14,000 infections each day. More than 95 percent of these new infections occurred in developing countries.(1)
In 2003, approximately 1,700 children under the age of 15 years, and 6,000 young people aged 15 to 24 years became infected with HIV every day.(1)
More than 20 million people with HIV/AIDS have died since the first AIDS cases were identified in 1981.(1)
In 2003 alone, HIV/AIDS-associated illnesses caused the deaths of approximately 2.9 million people worldwide, including an estimated 490,000 children younger than 15 years. (Reference: http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/stats.htm)
Prevalence of AIDS in different countries:
U.S.A
HIV and AIDS have been around in the United States for more than 20 years. The epidemic has now spread to every part of the USA and to all sectors of society.
In order to monitor the spread of the epidemic and to assess the need for services and resources, there is a need for accurate surveillance. In the USA, statistics on both HIV and AIDS are collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and published in an annual report.
At the end of 2003, the CDC estimates that 9,50,000 persons were living with AIDS in the USA. (Refer: Appendix 1 Table)
Of these,
- 36% were white
- 42% were black
- 20% were Hispanic
- 2% were of other race/ethnicity.
Of the adults and adolescents1 with AIDS, 77% were men. Of these men,
- 58% were men who had sex with men (MSM)
- 22% were injection drug users (IDU)
- 11% were exposed through heterosexual contact
- 8% were both MSM and IDU.
Of the 88,815 adult and adolescent women with AIDS,
63% were exposed through heterosexual contact
- 35% were exposed through injection drug use.
An estimated 1,998 children were living with AIDS at the end of 2003. (Reference: http://www.avert.org/statindx.htm)
U.K
An estimated 56,122 adults were living with HIV in the UK at the end of 2003, of whom 14,300 (27%) were unaware of their infection.
In 2003, there were 6,780 new diagnoses of HIV, since the epidemic began.
As of September 2004, there have been 20,778 diagnoses of AIDS in the UK. It is known that at least 512 of these people have died. It should be noted that the difference between these figures does not provide a very accurate estimate of the number of people living with AIDS in the UK. The figure will inevitably include some people who have moved abroad after diagnosis as well as some records belonging to the same person which have not been successfully matched. (Reference: http://www.avert.org/statindx.htm)
CANADA
At the end of 2003 there were an estimated 56,000 people in Canada living with HIV (including those living with AIDS).1 Of these, perhaps one third were unaware of their infection.2
From the start of testing in November 1985 until the end of June 2004, there have been 56,523 positive HIV tests reported to CIDPC (Centre for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control). In 2003, there were 2,499 positive test results.
